Arsip untuk ‘I’ Kategori

ISM

Juni 26, 2008

Non-manufacturing Survey

ISM Non-manufacturing survey contains interviews with 370 supply and purchasing management professionals from more than 26 sectors of the economy. This survey, despite of its short history (it dates back only to 1997), is supposed to become helpful guide to certain parts of the economy.

ISM Services Index

ISM Services Index, sometimes referred to as Non-Manufacturing ISM, is an index, which represents a survey of about 370 purchasing executives in industries associated with the service sector: communications, insurance, real estate, utilities and finance.

The expansion for the non-manufacturing parts of the economy is portrayed by readings above 50% while readings below 50% are declarative of decrease.

The is a new index created in 1997, so it’s not followed as closely as the ISM Manufacturing Index, which dates back to the 1940s.

International Trade

Juni 26, 2008

This report is used to reflect the balance between exports and imports of U.S. services and goods.

Import and export, representing approximately 14 and 12 percent of GDP respectively, are necessary parts of whole economic activity. Generally, the stronger exports are favorable for the stock market and corporate earnings.

This report is also vital for investors who are interested in diversifying globally, because trends in trade balance with particular countries can affect foreign exchange and policy with that trading partner.

Surveys of 300 purchasing managers nationwide representing 20 industries regarding manufacturing activity, is the base for the ISM Manufacturing Index. It includes such components as production, new orders, inventories, delivery times, employment, export and import orders and prices.

ISM Manufacturing Index is most important among all manufacturing indices. Expanding manufacturing sector and a healthy economy are represented by rates of 50% or above, while slowdown marks are below 50%. Rates traditionally associated with strong growth are above 65% while a figure below 40% means recession in the entire economy.

Besides of it, useful information about manufacturing activity is represented by various sub-components of this index. New orders are associated with long-term goods orders, the production component with industrial production, prices with producer prices, employment to factory payrolls, export orders to merchandise trade exports and import orders to merchandise imports.

The index is influenced by different factors, such as variations within the year, differences due to holidays and institutional changes, so it has to be adjusted seasonally.

Initial Claims

Juni 26, 2008

It’s a government index that represents the amount of people applying for state unemployment insurance.

Investors for forecasting changes in the labor market use this indicator’s four-week moving average. A move of 30,000 or more in claims depicts a considerable change in job growth. The amount of claims is associated with job market strength – low number of claims means strong job market.

Industrial Production

Juni 26, 2008

It’s a set of rates with a fixed weight showing both nation’s factories, mines and utilities production readjustment and the possible industrial capacity, production and the available resources usage among factories, utilities and mines, which is also known as capacity utilization. This factor affects much on the economy as far as the manufacturing occupies one fourth part of the developed countries’ economy.

It is possible to forecast the manufacturing production through the employment report and total manufacturing workweek in particular. The utility production seems to be the most instable factor as far as it can differ much because of the weather conditions. Strong hot or cold periods may rise the utility production as far as heating or cooling requirements increase sharply. This report estimates capacity utilization either. The capacity is taken as a straight line because of difficulties in its measurement. That’s why it is possible to predict capacity utilization rate decently relying on the estimated production increase. A key barrier that gives the starting point for generating inflationary pressures is 85% historically. Utilization rate values over 85% may cause production bottlenecks of inflation. For instance it is common for the Federal Reserve to form its interest rate policy and affect the Forex market accordingly basing on this report estimating the possible inflationary pressures from production tensions.

IFO index

Juni 26, 2008

The IFO index is close to PMI report and it shows the stability of German economy.

A rising index shows the possibility of production increase during the following months which causes euro strengthening as well as import prices.

What it is : A number of international indices of prices that adapt the figures of merchandise trade balance of each month to turn into volume (or real) conditions.

Why we care : Import price fluctuations except the petroleum ones show perfectly the possibility of foreign-formed prices to affect the U.S. inflation for goods.

Forex Glossary I

Juni 25, 2008

Importers/Exporters

Produce a regular flow of trading volume in the FX market.

Impulse Wave

(Elliott Wave)

Impulse waves are those that define the main direction of the trending move. They are labeled as waves: 1, 3 and 5. They are comprised of five waves of lesser degree.

Independent Traders
Speculate in the FX markets to make money. With the growth of the Internet and lower trading costs, their numbers are increasing.

Indicators

Indicators are calculated by using mathematical algorithms and are used to represent different characteristics such as overbought/oversold, trending or underlying price direction.

Inflation

Rate at which the prices of goods and services are increasing.

Initial Margin

The amount of money required by a brokerage firm for a trader to execute online currency trades.

Inside Bars and Outside Bars


Inside bars and outside bars are single bar patterns that are often identified as having important qualities and break of the bar’s extremes imply a continuation of the underlying direction.

An “Inside Bar” occurs when the current bars high and low are within the range of the previous bar. This is often interpreted as market price pausing and being uncertain of the underlying direction of the market.

An “Outside Bar” occurs when the current bars high and low exceed the extremes of the previous bar. This is often interpreted as the market having two conflicting views, the market has both buyers and sellers entering the market and thus break of the extremes (high or low) may provoke a further move in one direction.

Often, market players will look at the underlying volume to provide additional evidence of a potential move.

Interbank Market

The market for foreign exchange trading conducted by banks throughout the world, by phone or electronic network.

Interbank Rates

Forex prices quoted by the Interbank Market. Online FX trading now makes Interbank currency prices available to the independent trader.

Interest Differential

Each currency carries an interest rate. Depending on the difference between what interest rates are in one country compared to another (the so-called interest differential), traders can either earn interest on their trading positions over time or they will have to pay out interest.

Interest Rate

The amount of money paid on a bank deposit, expressed as an annual percentage.

Intermarket Analysis

This form of analysis was popularized in separate works by Martin Pring and John Murphy. Comparing the price action or trend of one market to the trend or price movement of another market to anticipate the impact one market may have on another. For example, following the trend of interest rates relative to the trend of the stock market.

Intermediate-term Trend

Represents corrections in a long-term trend.

Intrinsic Value

The difference between the price of the underlying instrument and the strike price of an option.

Inverted Hammer and Shooting Star

(Candlestick Reversal Pattern)

The Inverted Hammer develops in a downtrend and after a long black day a new low is formed with the body at the lower end of the range. The upper shadow is normally twice the size of the body, or slightly less, and there is only a small lower shadow.

After the long black day price opens below the close of the previous day. Price then rallies but remains below the previous day’s close. This obviously displays the desire to sell rallies, to maintain the downtrend. On the next trading day, if price opens above the body of the Inverted Hammer, it implies short covering and further gains.

The Shooting Star develops in an uptrend and after a long white day price opens above the close, rallies to a new high but declines to leave a short body to the low of the day’s range. Normally the upper shadow is two or three times the size of the body and there is almost no upper shadow. An open on the following day below the short body would imply further losses.

Irregular Flat

(Elliott Wave)

Occasionally in a correction the end of wave B will penetrate the extreme of the end of the impulsive wave. Wave C will normally retrace to the extreme of wave A. Wave A will be comprised of three waves. Wave C will be comprised of five waves. These normally occur before an extended wave and will signal a significant trend. This is also called an expanded flat.

ISO Codes

Three-letter abbreviations assigned by the International Standards Organization to designate currencies traded in the FX markets. The first two letters generally are an abbreviation of the country name. The last letter in the code is usually the first letter of the country’s currency.

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